1) it seems likely that the war will go on at least another five years
2) since Russian spending is increasing, it makes sense that per year spending will need to increase to match it
Let’s say that Russia spends $150B on defense this year. If they do that for five years that is $750B.
And of course their cost structure is lower. They are making 155mm shells for 10% of the price. So we don’t just need to spend $750B, we need to spend $7,500B to get the same output.
Quibble if you want with the numbers, but the war will end up being in the trillions before this is over* just like Iraq.
3) there is always the possibility that even with extra spending direct nato involvement will be necessary (Ukraine is running out of people to use the weapons, you already see France talking about this)
*of course if the war ends due to negotiation or Ukrainian collapse that could be avoided, but the stated goal of retaking the donbass/crimea against a mobilized Russia will definitely require at least that level of time and intensity
1) it seems likely that the war will go on at least another five years
2) since Russian spending is increasing, it makes sense that per year spending will need to increase to match it
Let’s say that Russia spends $150B on defense this year. If they do that for five years that is $750B.
And of course their cost structure is lower. They are making 155mm shells for 10% of the price. So we don’t just need to spend $750B, we need to spend $7,500B to get the same output.
Quibble if you want with the numbers, but the war will end up being in the trillions before this is over* just like Iraq.
3) there is always the possibility that even with extra spending direct nato involvement will be necessary (Ukraine is running out of people to use the weapons, you already see France talking about this)
*of course if the war ends due to negotiation or Ukrainian collapse that could be avoided, but the stated goal of retaking the donbass/crimea against a mobilized Russia will definitely require at least that level of time and intensity