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Jeremy Hood's avatar

Please explain how a DOGE dividend would cause inflation? The money was effectively printed for stimulus checks so are you saying it is the same for the spending related to DOGE dividend? This assumes we agree that inflation is actually a depreciation in the unit of account (USD) and is a monetary issue.

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Romina Boccia's avatar

2 reasons: They are promising large cash payments to the public before they've brought in the savings. I am considering the public choice dynamics here, in addition to what proponents of this idea have been suggesting. If the savings from DOGE don't materialize ($2 trillion is highly unlikely given their focus) or are reversed (also likely since executive actions can be easily undone by the next admin), the government may end up financing these checks through increased borrowing; unlike using any savings for deficit reduction, DOGE dividends would be redistributed to many taxpayers with very small net tax burdens who are more likely to spend the money -- even if they limit it to households with net tax burdens. This increased spending can drive up demand for goods and services, contributing to higher prices. One other component to consider as I am looking at the bigger picture: This proposal comes on the heels of President Trump endorsing the House Budget approach to deliver a 'big, beautiful bill' that will increase US deficits by $2+ trillion to extend tax cuts and increase spending on border security, so the current fiscal path is already inflationary without a DOGE dividend. We don't know what the Fed will do in the coming months. Higher deficits aren't easing pressures on the central bank to loosen monetary policy.

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