You’re Invited to Social Security in the Red: Implications for Federal Debt
May 6, 2026, 12–1 PM EDT at the Cato Institute & Online
Social Security is widely portrayed as a self-financed program with a long-term trust fund solvency problem.
That’s not the full story.
Join me on May 6th at Noon, at the Cato Institute (with lunch to follow) or online, for a conversation about Social Security’s implications for the US national debt with Jessica Riedl (Brookings Institution) and C. Eugene Steuerle (Urban Institute).
For more than a decade, Social Security has been financed in part through federal borrowing. The “trust fund” is not a vault of savings or invested assets. It is a political accounting construct. When Social Security runs a cash-flow deficit, the Treasury must borrow from the public to cover the gap.
Since 2010, the Treasury has borrowed more than $1.5 trillion to pay Social Security benefits, in excess of what payroll taxes and taxes on Social Security benefits cover (see chart below). Borrowing is projected to rise sharply—even before the trust fund is exhausted in 2032. Over the next 75 years, the program’s cash-flow shortfall amounts to about $28 trillion in present-value terms.
Social Security is not just a future problem. It is already contributing to federal debt.
On May 6, we will host a conversation at the Cato Institute examining what this means for fiscal policy, retirement security, and reform.
What We’ll Discuss
Does having a “trust fund” mean Social Security is financially separate from the rest of the government budget?
When the program redeems trust fund bonds, does the federal government have to borrow more?
Can Congress get away with waiting for another last-minute fix, as they did in the 1980s?
Can economic growth alone close the funding gap?
Would lifting the payroll tax cap sustainably solve the problem—or merely shift burdens?
What are the political barriers to reform, and how can they be overcome?
We will also examine recent policy changes, including new benefit expansions and tax deductions, and discuss whether expanding benefits is warranted or merely electoral vote-buying that digs the fiscal hole even deeper.
I’ll be joined by:
Jessica Riedl, Budget and Tax Fellow, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, Brookings Institution
C. Eugene Steuerle, Institute Fellow and Richard B. Fisher Chair, Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, Urban Institute
Social Security reform debates are too often shaped by myths about trust funds, unsupported claims about economic growth solving funding gaps, or politically attractive but economically harmful proposals. Join us for a candid discussion on the future of Social Security—and its growing role in America’s debt crisis.
Lunch to follow.
Social Security’s Financial Crisis in Pictures
Social Security has been in the news lately—but for the wrong reasons. The Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) efforts to investigate an exaggerated fraud problem and subsequent legal battles have brought the program into the spotlight. But this coverage is missing the elephant in the room: Social Security is hurtling toward a benefit cliff—not…